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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced British officials that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document & Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a suggestion that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.