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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."